Losing Leeds United States

Courtesy of Rui Vieira / AP Photo

Matchweek 22 - 2022/23

The January transfer window and its ludicrous spending slammed shut earlier this week, and Premier League teams are seeing varying degrees of transfer success. Leeds and Nottingham Forest met at City Ground this weekend, two clubs exiting the window with very different outlooks for the rest of the season.

Leeds United, sitting in 15th position at the end of January, continued their youthful squad investments under Jesse Marsch. American midfielder Weston McKennie was brought in on loan, and center-back Maximilian Wober and young forward Georginio Rutter were bought for a combined fee of 36 million pounds to address problematic positions. 

Their opponents this past weekend, Nottingham Forest, also had a productive window. Chris Wood, Danilo, Jonjo Shelvey, Felipe, and most notably, PSG goalkeeper Keylor Navas, all bring valuable experience and depth to keep Forest away from the dropzone.

Despite Leeds’ 70% possession, they found themselves on the losing side again. They led on Expected Goals too, though the 0.29-0.75 statistic showed that neither side created much. The breakthrough for Forest came in the 14th minute when a poor clearance from Pascal Struijk fell to Brennan Johnson. He lashed a volley past Illan Meslier for the only goal of the game. 

For their first season after promotion, the Reds are doing impressively well. They have been overperforming at home, taking points off established sides Brentford, Liverpool, Crystal Palace, and now Leeds. 

Under Steve Cooper, Forest are a heavily rotated squad. They’ve fielded 31 players this season, compared to Manchester City’s 21 or Arsenal’s 22. Cooper has strengthened vulnerable areas and addressed injury concerns with multiple smart transfers and brought in a blend of youth and experience. New signing Navas played a big role in keeping out the few attacks Leeds launched, highlighting the club’s focus on reinvesting for a prolonged stay in the top flight. 

Leeds, on the other hand, are struggling. Their signings haven’t hit the ground running as they’d hoped, they haven’t won since early November, and though they have stayed out of the relegation zone, it’s never been more than a few points away. While the January signings admittedly saw limited minutes on Sunday, the larger issue is the team has been unable to produce the results expected of a talented group. The morning after their loss to Forest, Leeds sacked Jesse Marsch. 

Higher-ups at Leeds clearly liked Marsch and his energetic youthful style when they brought him from RB Leipzig to replace Marcelo Bielsa, but he hasn’t been able to gel the new players and build needed results. It’s strange they bought three players in January that fit Marsch’s style just before firing him, but losses to teams they should have taken points from like Leicester, West Ham, and Forest throughout the season were deemed inexcusable. 

Fans in the United States may have particular interest in Leeds, as they have been building an American presence in the heart of England. Backing Jesse Marsch’s methods, a Wisconsin native himself, the Whites have brought in US internationals Brendan Aaronson, Tyler Adams, and now Weston McKennie. 

Further, the San Francisco 49ers have been slowly increasing their share of the Yorkshire club since 2018 and a full buyout could be completed in the next few years. Marsch’s departure (potentially to the vacant USMNT job) detracts slightly from their appeal to US audiences, but Leeds already have an American following the potential new owners will take advantage of. 

Leeds find themselves in a very similar position to Everton last week, where they must search for a new manager ahead of two very difficult games. Under very rare scheduling circumstances, both are against Manchester United, before a trip to fellow strugglers Everton. If the now managerless Leeds lose both to United, which is expected given the form Erik ten Hag’s men are in, they would sit on 18 points from 23 games. A grim indicator, as the average points total of relegated teams is 27 over the last five seasons. 

After establishing themselves as deserving league competitors with a ninth-place finish last season, Leeds are unexpectedly in danger of slipping back to the Championship. Everton earned a shocking 1-0 upset of league-leaders Arsenal under new manager Sean Dyche at the weekend, so there is no guarantee that Leeds will find easy points anywhere on the table. The relegation race is as wide open as ever.

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